IPCC 기후변화 시나리오(A1B)에 따른 살오징어(Todarodes pacificus) 산란장의 변동 예측

Abstract

In the northwestern Pacific, spawning of the common squid, Todarodes pacificus, occurs at continental shelf and slope areas of 100-500 m, and the optimum temperature for the spawning and survival of paralarvae is assumed to be 18-23oC. To predict the spawning ground of Todarodes pacificus under future climate conditions, we simulated the present and future ocean circulations, using an East Asia regional ocean model (Modular Ocean Model, MOM version3), projected by two different global climate models (MPI_echam5, MIROC_hires), under an IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario. Mean climate states for 1990-1999 and 2030-2039 from 20th and 21th Century Climate Change model simulation (from the IPCC 4th Assessment Report) were used as surface conditions for simulations, and we examined changes in spawning ground between the 1990s and 2030s. The results revealed that the distribution of spawning ground in the 2030s in both climate models shifted northward in the East China Sea and East Sea, for both autumn and winter populations, compared to that of the 1990s. Also, the spawning area (with 1/6o × 1/6o grid) in the 2030s of the autumn and winter populations will decline by 11.6% (MPI_echam5) to 30.8% (MIROC_hires) and 3.0% (MPI_echam5) to 18.2% (MIROC_hires), respectively, from those of the 1990s.