Ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) Anomalies as Earthquake Precursors: Unveiling the Geophysical Connection Leading to the 2023 Moroccan 6.8 Mw Earthquake

Abstract

The study delves into the relationship between ionospheric total electron content (TEC) anomalies and seismic activity, with a focus on Morocco’s 6.8 Mw earthquake on 8 September 2023, lying within a tectonically active region at the convergence of the African and Eurasian Plates. To enhance the reliability of our findings, we incorporate space weather conditions, utilizing indices (Dst, Kp, and F10.7) to pinpoint periods of stable space weather. This minimizes the possibility of erroneously attributing natural ionospheric fluctuations to seismic events. Notably, our TEC analysis unveils positive and negative anomalies, with some occurring up to a week before the earthquake. These anomalies, exceeding predefined thresholds, provide compelling evidence of significant deviations from typical ionospheric conditions. Spatial mapping techniques employing both station-specific vTEC data and pseudorandom noise codes (PRNs) from multiple global navigation satellite system (GNSS) stations highlight a strong correlation between ionospheric anomalies and the earthquake’s epicenter. The integration of PRNs enhances coverage and sensitivity to subtle anomalies. Additionally, the analysis of satellite imagery and ground displacement data using Sentinel-1 confirms significant ground uplift of approximately 15 cm following the earthquake, shedding light on surface responses to seismic events. These findings underscore the potential of ionospheric science in advancing earthquake early warning systems and deepening our understanding of earthquake precursors, thus contributing to the mitigation of seismic event impacts and the protection of lives and infrastructure.