Ionospheric foF2 nowcast based on a machine learning GWO-ALSTM model

Abstract

The ionospheric foF2 prediction model GWO-ALSTM is proposed in this paper, which combines the Gray Wolf Optimization (GWO) algorithm and the attention mechanism based on the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. The datasets used in this model were obtained from the oblique ionosondes of the China Ground-based Seismo-ionospheric Monitoring Network. The data from 2010 to 2012 was used for training, and the data of 2013 was used for verification. The input parameters of the model include local time, day number, sunspot number, F10.7 solar flux, Ap index, Dst index, and foF2 at the previous moment, and the output parameter is foF2 at the current moment. The IRI2016 model, GABP model, LSTM model and GWO-ALSTM model were compared with the observed results for analysis. The results show that the GWO-ALSTM model is superior to the LSTM model, the GABP model and the IRI2016 model. Meanwhile, the comparative analyses of the diurnal variations of foF2 show that the curve of the GWO-ALSTM model fits the observed values more closely than the curve of any other model under the geomagnetic quiet and storm conditions.