Investor Confidence and Forecastability of US Stock Market Realized Volatility: Evidence from Machine Learning

Abstract

Using a machine-learning technique known as random forests, we analyze the role of investor confidence in forecasting monthly aggregate realized stock-market volatility of the United States (US), over and above a wide-array of macroeconomic and financial variables. We estimate random forests on data for a period from 2001 to 2020, and study horizons up to one year by computing forecasts for recursive and a rolling estimation window. We find that investor confidence, and especially investor confidence uncertainty has out-of-sample predictive value for overall realized volatility, as well as its “good” and “bad” variants. Our results have important implications for investors and policymakers.