Investor attention and crude oil prices: Evidence from nonlinear Granger causality tests

Abstract

Using the Google search volume index (GSVI) to measure investor attention, this paper investigates the relationships between investor attention and crude oil prices for the main crude oil markets worldwide. To account for possible structural breaks and nonlinearity in the relation between investor attention and oil returns, Fourier unit root test and nonlinear Granger causality tests are employed. The empirical results suggest that the bidirectional nonlinear Granger causality exists only between investor attention and WTI future crude oil return. However, WTI crude oil return Granger-causes investor attention weakly. For Dubai spot, Daqing spot, WTI spot and Brent future oil markets, unidirectional nonlinear Granger causality runs from investor attention to oil returns, which is relatively weak.