Investment risk assessment of anaerobic fermentation based hydrogen production project based on regret linguistic Z-number averaging Choquet integral operator

Abstract

Anaerobic fermentation based hydrogen production technology has a good market investment prospect for its advantages of abundant raw material sources, low cost and low energy consumption. The industry is in the early stage of development and will face many risks. The corresponding risk assessment has not yet attracted attention. Therefore, this paper constructs a risk assessment framework. Firstly, 17 critical risk factors affecting the anaerobic fermentation based hydrogen production project is identified and grouped into five categories. The linguistic Z-number is then used to describe the uncertainty. Later, a regret linguistic Z-number averaging Choquet integral operator is put forward to deal with interrelationships between criteria and simulate the decision-makers’ regret avoidance attitudes. In addition, a novel relative entropy measure is determined, wherein the expert weight model is established by combining the reliability measure. Subsequently, a case study is conducted and the result demonstrates the risk level of the project located in Hubei, China is between “Medium” and “Slightly high”. Finally, some measures are proposed to deal with these risks. This work can provide a theoretical basis for the risk prevention and investment decision of anaerobic fermentation based hydrogen production projects.