Investment, population growth and GNP as determinants of US immigration.

Abstract

The author evaluates whether emigration to the United States in the 1989-93 period can be accounted for by demographic and economic conditions in sending countries, as postulated by neoclassical theorists, or by levels of U.S. investment in sending countries, as claimed by world system theorists. Utilizing data on U.S. permanent migration, emigration rates for 150 sending countries are calculated and the correlates of emigration assessed. The analysis provides no support for claims that rapid population growth and U.S. investment fuel U.S. immigration. Rather emigration is significantly lower from countries experiencing rapid population growth and not significantly correlated with U.S. investment. Indeed, U.S. investment tends to be highest in more advanced countries that send relatively few migrants to the United States. Geographic proximity is the most important correlate of emigration, followed by population size of sending countries, which has a negative relationship to emigration. The analysis also provides some support for the neoclassical argument that emigration will decrease as countries develop. It is argued that policy factors remain the important factor shaping U.S. immigration. Who a country decides to admit and how many people are admitted depends largely on outcomes of public policy discussions and very little on the economic and demographic conditions of sending countries. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.