Abstract
The article examines a methodological approach to regional forecasting of power consumption. It is also analyzed the role of the investment factor in forecasting the economic development of the country and regions. By the example of the Irkutsk region it is estimated the prospective level of power consumption, which is necessary to predict the rational development of the region’s fuel and energy complex in terms of social and economic as well as environmental indicators.
Highlights
The most important stage in a long-term forecasting of the development of the region’s fuel and energy complex (FEC) is the electricity consumption forecasting
Overestimated predictions of electricity consumption are usually associated with unreasonably overestimated prognosis of the economic development of the country and regions
The full scheme of the model for macroforecasting of electricity consumption at the country and regional levels is presented in [5]. Leaning on this methodological approach, it was made the forecast of power consumption in the Irkutsk region for a 15-year period
Summary
The most important stage in a long-term forecasting of the development of the region’s fuel and energy complex (FEC) is the electricity consumption forecasting. I.e. the investments that ensure regional economic growth, are a limited resource for the regions as well as they depend on their total country’s volume, which is limited, because it is formed in the environment of a number of unfavorable internal and external factors Based on this provision, at the initial stage of forecasting electricity consumption, that is, when determining the prospective indicators of the economic development of the country and regions (gross regional product or gross output), it is predicted investments in the Russian economy at large. At the initial stage of forecasting electricity consumption, that is, when determining the prospective indicators of the economic development of the country and regions (gross regional product or gross output), it is predicted investments in the Russian economy at large This forecast is carried out on the basis of the specified growth rates of investments in fixed assets, given the retrospective average annual growth rates for a long period, including both favorable and unfavorable (crisis) years of the country's economic development,. Leaning on this methodological approach, it was made the forecast of power consumption in the Irkutsk region for a 15-year period (up to 2035)
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