Abstract
The investment decision analysis of international megaprojects is a major area of interest. The choice of international megaprojects usually depends on the multi-discipline knowledge from experts. Besides, experts may not be able to provide accurate or crisp evaluations such as deterministic numbers on each criterion because of the complexity of the decision problem. In this case, natural evaluation language, either single linguistic variable or multiple linguistic variables, is a good expression tool for experts to sharing their opinions freely and flexibly. To this end, this paper introduces a cognitive linguistic cloud model for the investment decision analysis of international megaprojects as a decision support system and provides a survey of the cloud model. Afterwards, the technique to tackle multi-granularity of cognitive linguistic information is proposed to capture personalized semantics. In addition, operators of the cognitive linguistic model are proposed to aggregate natural language. The proposed approach has the advantages of more accurate utilization of experts’ knowledge, reducing uncertainties, and more effective operations of cognitive clouds for decision analysis in comparing with the state of the art. Finally, a case study about the investment of international megaprojects is given to show the flexibility and understandability of the cognitive linguistic model.
Highlights
Megaprojects with no blueprint or shortcut for building are required to design and establish from the ground up
This study focuses on the uncertain evaluation language modeled by either hesitant fuzzy linguistic term sets or probabilistic linguistic term sets, and presents cloud models for these two kinds of information
A hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set can be described by the following cloud model based on the operations of clouds: Under the assumption that the basic clouds are obtained, this section reviews the existing algebraic operations of clouds to give the cloud expressions of natural evaluation
Summary
Megaprojects with no blueprint or shortcut for building are required to design and establish from the ground up. The complexity of international megaprojects leads to the great difficulty in providing precise information in each dimension (Keith & Ahner, 2020) required by the conventional multiple criteria analysis In this case, the natural language sometimes is the only available and feasible expression and often a good alternative to capture evaluations in the decision-making process (Liao et al, 2018). As for the uncertain measure in forms of entropy and hyper entropy, they are only influenced by the adjacent basic clouds instead of the whole basic cloud In this way, the linguistic terms provided by experts are more accurately and more effectively used as the irrelevant (far away) clouds are ignored and as a result, uncertainties are reduced.
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