Investigative Study of Economic Crisis in Sri Lanka

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyses the reasons and scenario of the current economic crisis in Sri Lanka. The study examines the possible reasons for the crisis, its ongoing impact on GDP, tourism industry, and on Sri Lankan rupee against other major currencies in the world. The paper shows that Forex reserves of Sri Lanka mainly depend on Tourism revenue, thus underscoring the importance of the tourism industry. But due to current circumstances of the Covid-19 and its severe impacts leads to a high decline in tourism revenue which ultimately affects the country’s reserves. This resulted in the high depreciation in the value of the Sri Lankan rupee against other major currencies in the world. To assess if the country has enough reserves, we have used the Guidotti - Greenspan rule and we found that since the Covid pandemic has begun, Sri Lanka has been unable to follow this rule and the ratio of reserves to short term debt is continuously decreasing. The external sector of Sri Lanka is also not performing well due to the sharp decline in exports. The IMF has approved a bailout package through its Special Drawing Rights to get over this crisis. Therefore, appropriate actions must be undertaken to overcome the crisis and revive the economy