Investigation on high-dimensional uncertainty quantification and reliability analysis of aero-engine

Abstract

Accurate quantification of uncertainties is paramount in the contemporary design of aero-engines, demanding substantial computational resources. This investigation introduces an efficient parallel framework for uncertainty quantification, significantly curtailing sample requirements while upholding computational precision. Furthermore, this research tackles the constraints intrinsic to traditional reliability analyses, which often disregard uncertainty, by conceiving an algorithm tailored to aero-engine reliability analysis and lifespan prediction that deliberately accounts for uncertainties. The findings from the uncertainty quantification disclose that the most pivotal factor contributing to the variability in leakage flow rate is unequivocally the variance index of the tip clearance deviation, demonstrating a substantial variance index of 81.52 %. Concerning cooling performance, a remarkable shift is evident, with inlet total temperature fluctuation eclipsing the tip clearance deviation in terms of significance. This transformation is accentuated by a variance index of 54.52 %. Furthermore, the film cooling effectiveness displays notable variability within the uncertainty framework, underscoring that the blades may be subjected to more severe thermal corrosion and thermal fatigue during operational conditions than initially envisioned. Reliability calculations elucidate that the probability of blade failure experiences the steepest ascent after approximately 15,500 h of operation, necessitating mandatory overhaul at this juncture.