Investigation of the Relationship between Fluctuations in Natural and Climatic Factors and Incidence Rates in Selected Territories of the Russian Federation

Abstract

Introduction: The implementation of measures of the sectoral plan for adaptation of the population to climate change is one of the priority tasks of ensuring sanitary and epidemiological well-being of the population. The ongoing scientific research is the basis for the development of management solutions aimed at reducing morbidity and mortality related to the observed and upcoming climate changes. Objective: To assess the relationship between fluctuations in natural and climatic factors and incidence rates in the population of selected territories of the Russian Federation. Materials and methods: The territories of the cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg as well as Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Leningrad, Moscow, Voronezh, Rostov, and Krasnodar regions were selected for the assessment taking into account changes in the latitude of the terrain from north to south (from the 68th to 37th parallels north). The prepared database of incidence rates and weather conditions on the above territories for the years 2008–2019 was used for the analysis. Mathematical modeling was the methodological basis for data processing. Results: We analyzed the potential relationship between changes in natural and climatic factors and incidence rates in the population of nine regions of the Russian Federation. We also tested the link between geographical coordinates and incidence rates and established the latitudinal dependence of the increase in the incidence in the range of the 60th to 47th parallels north in four regions. There, we observed an increase and a decrease in the incidence in total population related to such meteorological parameters as wind velocity in the city of Voronezh, relative humidity in the cities of Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, St. Petersburg, and Rostov-on-Don, cloud cover in Murmansk and Arkhangelsk in 2009 and 2012, respectively. No relationships were found in the city of Moscow and the Krasnodar Region. Conclusion: We revealed the relationships between fluctuations in wind velocity, humidity, and cloud cover and the incidence rates in the areas under study and identified priority territories and periods for further research.