Investigation of the impact of biogeographic ancestry on DNA methylation based age predictions comparing a Middle East and a Central European population

Abstract

DNA methylation based age prediction is a new method in the toolbox of forensic genetics. Typically, the method is applied in the course of police investigation e.g. to predict the age of an unknown person that has left a biological trace at a crime scene. The method can also be used to answer other forensic questions, for example to estimate the age of unknown human bodies in the course of the identification process. In the present study, we tested for a potential impact of biogeographic ancestry (BGA) on age predictions using five age dependent methylated CpG sites within the genetic regions of ELOVL2, MIR29B2CHG, FHL2, KLF14 and TRIM59. We collected 102 blood samples each from donors living in Iraq, Middle East (ME) and Germany, Central Europe (EU). Both sample sets were matched in sex and age ranging from 18 to 68 years with exactly one male and female sample per year of age. All samples were analyzed by bisulfite pyrosequencing applying a multiplex pre-amplification strategy based on a single input of 35 ng converted DNA in the PCR. For the CpGs in MIR29B2CHG, FHL2 and KLF14, we observed significantly different methylation levels between the two populations. While we were able to train two highly accurate prediction models for the respective population with mean absolute deviations between predicted and actual ages (MAD) of 3.34 years for the ME model, and 2.72 years for the EU model, we found an absolute prediction difference between the two population specific models of more than 4 years. A combined model for both populations compensated the methylation difference between the two populations, providing MADs of prediction of only 3.81 years for ME and 3.31 years for EU samples. In total, the results of the present study strongly support the benefit of BGA information for more reliable methylation based age predictions.