Investigation of the effects of synthetic wind speed parameters and wind speed distribution on system size and cost in hybrid renewable energy system design

Abstract

The accuracy of wind speed data has an important impact on determining power output from a Hybrid Renewable Energy System including wind turbine. For a better estimation of energy price or payback period, it is crucial to determine both monthly average wind speed values and distribution parameters. Studies evaluating the sensitivity of wind speed distribution parameters concerning the optimal system size are lacking in the literature. This work fills the gap in the literature and for the first time, the effects of wind speed distribution parameters and wind speed distribution on the optimum system are statistically demonstrated. According to this case study, if these parameters are not set correctly, the Cost of Energy may be faulty between −14.024% and +37.804% for the Photovoltaic-Wind-Battery-Inverter system, may be faulty between −19.024% and +97.05% for the Wind-Battery-Inverter system and may be faulty between −56.437% and +65.250% for the Wind-Inverter system. When the default distribution parameters of the HOMER software are used, the errors are −0.609%, −18.30%, −34.215% respectively. This study reveals that in addition to monthly average wind speed values, distribution parameters should be chosen as accurately as possible. The innovative aspect of this work is the statistical presentation of how synthetic wind speed distribution can affect Hybrid Renewable Energy System sizing and at the same time Cost of Energy. Its importance is that it provides more precise results by guiding optimization studies using synthetic meteorological data, which is a popular field of study.