Investigation of Spatiotemporal Changes in the Incidence of Traffic Accidents in Kahramanmaraş, Turkey, Using GIS-Based Density Analysis

Abstract

Owing to their social and economic consequences, the spatial densities of traffic accidents need to be investigated to solve and prevent related problems. In this study, we aim to determine the spatial densities of traffic accidents over the long term and identify the spatiotemporal changes in the high-density areas of Kahramanmaras City. Initially, a spatial database of accident features and locations was prepared. Between 2008 and 2015, 14,317 traffic accidents were identified. The hotspot and kernel density estimation (KDE) methods, which were developed to determine the spatial densities in geographical information systems, are commonly used to successfully detect high traffic-accident-density areas. In this study, z scores determined by hotspot analysis were used as weight value for weighted KDE. These areas were obtained separately for each year, and an accident time series was created. The spatiotemporal changes to these areas occurring between 2008 and 2015 were determined. Traffic accidents increased in density at important intersection points of the city, and these areas changed over time during urban development. The results of this study are expected to be beneficial for determining priority areas for preventing traffic accidents in Kahramanmaras.