Abstract
The purpose of the present study is to investigate simultaneously pre-earthquake ionospheric and atmospheric disturbances by the application of different methodologies, with the ultimate aim to detect their possible link with the impending seismic event. Three large earthquakes in Mexico are selected (8.2 Mw, 7.1 Mw and 6.6 Mw during 8 and 19 September 2017 and 21 January 2016 respectively), while ionospheric variations during the entire year 2017 prior to 37 earthquakes are also examined. In particular, Total Electron Content (TEC) retrieved from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks and Atmospheric Chemical Potential (ACP) variations extracted from an atmospheric model are analyzed by performing statistical and spectral analysis on TEC measurements with the aid of Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs), Ionospheric Precursor Mask (IPM) methodology and time series and regional maps of ACP. It is found that both large and short scale ionospheric anomalies occurring from few hours to a few days prior to the seismic events may be linked to the forthcoming events and most of them are nearly concurrent with atmospheric anomalies happening during the same day. This analysis also highlights that even in low-latitude areas it is possible to discern pre-earthquake ionospheric disturbances possibly linked with the imminent seismic events.
Highlights
Introduction nal affiliationsHumanity has placed a huge effort to understand the generation mechanism of earthquakes even since ancient times with the ultimate goal to successfully predict them.This long-lasting endeavor which is extensively described by [1] begins with Anaximenes of Miletus and continues with Aristotle, who first conceived and described the “πνεṽμα”(pneuma, air in motion), an exhalation emanating from underground to the atmosphere and causing earthquakes
We examine abnormal ionospheric variations prior to the selected earthquakes in Mexico by applying statistical analysis on Total Electron Content (TEC) as obtained from various Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations located inside the earthquake preparation zone
We review global ionospheric TEC maps (GIMs) and we construct the Ionospheric Precursor Mask by utilizing TEC data from Global Ionospheric Maps (GIMs) in order to understand salient temporal and spatial features of pre-earthquake ionospheric anomalies in particular over a low-latitude region where the ionosphere exhibits a peculiar behavior
Summary
Introduction nal affiliationsHumanity has placed a huge effort to understand the generation mechanism of earthquakes even since ancient times with the ultimate goal to successfully predict them.This long-lasting endeavor which is extensively described by [1] begins with Anaximenes of Miletus and continues with Aristotle, who first conceived and described the “πνεṽμα”(pneuma, air in motion), an exhalation emanating from underground to the atmosphere and causing earthquakes. Humanity has placed a huge effort to understand the generation mechanism of earthquakes even since ancient times with the ultimate goal to successfully predict them. This long-lasting endeavor which is extensively described by [1] begins with Anaximenes of Miletus and continues with Aristotle, who first conceived and described the “πνεṽμα”. Other ancient Greek and Chinese philosophers observed and reported pre-earthquake anomalies, such as fogs and clouds and the disappearance of water from wells. Similar pre-earthquake phenomena continued to be detected in the Renaissance and shortly later during the 16th, 17th and 18th century by a considerable number of scientists such as A. Longobardo, Rossi, Mallet, Mercalli, it was only later at the beginning of 19th century when such anomalies were identified
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