Investigation of Machine Learning Regression Techniques to Predict Critical Heat Flux Over a Large Parameter Space

Abstract

A unifying and accurate model to predict critical heat flux (CHF) over a wide range of conditions has been elusive since wall boiling research emerged. With the release of the experimental data utilized in the development of the 2006 Groeneveld CHF lookup table (LUT), by far the most extensive public CHF database available to date (nearly 25 000 data points), the development of data-driven prediction models over a large parameter space in simple geometry (vertical, uniformly heated round tubes) can be achieved. Furthermore, the popularization of machine learning techniques to solve regression problems has led to more advanced tools for analyzing large and complex databases. This work compares three machine learning algorithms to predict the CHF database. For each selected regression algorithm (ν-Support vector, Gaussian process, and neural network), a set of optimized hyperparameters is applied. Among the investigated algorithms, the neural network emerges as the most effective, achieving a CHF predicted/measured factor standard deviation of 12.3%, three times less than that of the LUT. In comparison, the Gaussian process regression and the ν-support vector regression achieve a standard deviation of 17.7%, about two times lower than the LUT. Hence, all considered algorithms significantly outperform the LUT prediction performance. The neural network model and training methodology are designed to prevent overfitting, which is confirmed by data analyses of the CHF predictions. Finally, future development directions (including data coverage, transfer learning, and uncertainty quantification) are discussed.