Investigation of Future Land Use Change and Implications for Cropland Quality: The Case of China

Abstract

Cropland loss resulting from land use change has drawn great attention in China due to the threat to food security. However, little is known about future magnitude and quality of cropland of China. In this study, the dynamic conversion of land use and its effects model (Dyna-CLUE) together with the Markov model and the potential yield data were used to simulate the influence of land use change on cropland quality in the next two decades under three scenarios. The results indicate that, under the trend scenario, the high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase between 2015 and 2030. The crop yield would decrease by 1.3 × 109 kg. Under planned scenario, high-yield and medium-yield cropland would decrease and the low-yield cropland would increase, and total crop yield would stay almost unchanged. Under the cropland protection scenario, the high-yield cropland would reduce slightly, and the medium-yield and low-yield cropland would increase substantially. The crop yield would increase by 5.36 × 1010 kg. The result of this study will help decision-makers to develop reasonable land use policies to achieve the goals of harmonious development between food security, economic growth, and environmental protection.