Investigation of Cluster-Based Cyclone Track Pattern Within the Bay of Bengal

Abstract

Bangladesh is a highly disaster prone flat land country in south Asia. 80% of the disaster comes from cyclonic disaster around this area. To investigate the damage risk due to the cyclonic event around the Bay of Bengal associated with the cyclone track (CT) is an important issue. The present study has extensive analysis on generating a most favorable track along the Bay of Bengal from the MRI-AGCM cyclone track data. We have investigated present (1978-2003) and future (2075-2099) track data from the MRI-AGCM data set to ensure the synthetic track for the present and future climate conditions of Bangladesh. A k-mean clustering technique has been applied to investigate the synthetic track for the present and future climate condition. This work may insight the changes in cyclone track patterns in both the present and future climate conditions with the global warming scenario. This study has found that the Sundarbans and its adjacent areas are the risky coastline area of the landfall zone and for the global warming scenario it will be shifted to the Odisha area in India.