Investigation of Black Sea mean sea level variability by singular spectrum analysis

Abstract

The mean sea level has been continuously increasing since the end of the 19th century and will continue to increase in the 21st century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that the sea level will rise by 40-60 cm until 2100. This situation will lead to social and economic problems, especially in coastal areas. For this reason, studies on sea level determination have great importance in our country. In this paper, we used the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to investigate mean sea level variability along the coasts of the Black Sea, which is an intercontinental inland sea. This study aimed to determine the trend in sea level change along the coasts of the Black Sea over time. The mean sea level data from 10 tide gauge stations (Amasra, Batumi, Bourgas, Constantza, Igneada, Poti, Sevastapol, Trabzon II, Tuapse and Varna) are analyzed in this study. The mean sea level data were obtained from the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL). SSA was applied to the mean sea level observations at tide gauges stations, and the results were interpreted. According to the analysis results, there are increasing trends at the Batumi, Poti, Tuapse, Constantza, Sevastopol and Varna stations. The obtained trend of Bourgas station is not significant. There is The results of the Amasra, Igneada and Trabzon II tide gauge stations were inadequate in interpreting any change. There were no trends at these stations. Close eigenvalues were computed from the mean sea level at the tide gauge stations. This situation shows that there is a dominant seasonal component in the time series.