Investigation and susceptibility assessment of regional geological hazards along the Karakoram highway, northeast margin of Pamir Plateau

Abstract

The Karakoram Highway (KKH) is a major road traffic route connecting China to South Asia and the Middle East via Pakistan. Geological hazards occur often in the study area due to the influence of complex geological features, active glaciers, and a changing climate, causing major disruptions to traffic operations. As a result, a geological hazard susceptibility map was created in this study to aid in the prevention and control of highway slope disasters. Through field investigation and map interpretation, 102 geohazards, including landslides, debris flows, and collapses, were observed along the route. The logistic regression method was utilized to generate a predictive model for the susceptibility map considering topography, faults, peak ground acceleration, geology, land cover, rainfall, and drainages. The results imply that the model performs well in terms of prediction. The AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve) value is 90.6%. The risk associated with the highway was assessed using the susceptibility map. Some sections of the highway are in high-risk zones, where disasters are more perilous and endanger people and automobiles. This effort will support geohazard protection, management, and safe operation of road traffic.