Investigating Urban Heat Island and Vegetation Effects Under the Influence of Climate Change in Early Design Stages

Abstract

Different criteria need to be considered for optimal strategies in the early design stages of urban developments. Under the influence of climate change, the urban heat island effect (UHI) is a phenomenon that gains importance in the early design stages. Here, different parameters, for instance, vegetation ratio in the city district and building density, play a significant role in the UHI effect. These parameters need to be quantified through different simulation tools for optimal climate adaptation and mitigation measures on the urban district scale. However, not all parameters and their influence are clear to the decision-makers and actors in the early design stages. Hence, we propose a Monte Carlo based sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty analysis (UA) to show the significance of different parameters and quantify them. The SA aims to identify the major influencing parameters, whereas the UA quantifies the effect on the energy performance and indoor thermal comfort of occupants. The workflow is integrated into a collaborative design platform and applied in a case study to support decision-makers in the early design stages for new developments, densification, or refurbishment scenarios.