Investigating ultra-low frequency emissions and total electron content anomalies as earthquake precursors in Sumatra (2019–2020)

Abstract

Ultra-low frequency (ULF) emissions and total electron content (TEC) anomalies are potential earthquake precursors for short-term earthquake prediction. This study comprehensively examines ULF emissions and TEC anomalies associated with the Sumatra earthquakes spanning 2019–2020. Precursor ULF emissions are identified through the polarization power ratio calculations involving Z-component and H-component geomagnetic data, meticulously recorded by the Magnetik Acquisition Data System (MAGDAS). Employing the Single Station Function Transfer technique, ULF anomalies directed toward the epicenter of earthquakes are recognized as reliable precursors. Among the 29 earthquakes scrutinized, 25 were heralded by ULF emissions acting as precursors. Among these, 15 instances solely exhibited ULF emissions, unaccompanied by TEC anomalies, while the remaining ten were linked to TEC anomalies. The investigation of TEC anomalies employs advanced autocorrelation techniques rooted in the analysis of correlation coefficient deviations. TEC anomalies are meticulously acquired from the observations of the Sumatran GPS Array (SuGAr) stations. Furthermore, this study illuminates a positive correlation (R = 0.65) between the lead time of ULF emissions and TEC anomalies. Moreover, the frequency of ULF emissions and TEC anomalies also showcases a direct relationship with earthquake magnitude. Heightened frequencies of ULF emissions and TEC anomalies as earthquake precursors correspond to more significant magnitudes in ensuing earthquakes. The outcomes of this research significantly augment the understanding of employing ULF emissions and TEC anomalies as effective earthquake precursors in the context of Sumatra.