Investigating the vegetation and agricultural responses to El Nino/Southern Oscillation using AVHRR data

Abstract

This study explores the possible linkages of El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with vegetation and rainfall patterns, vegetation activity and food grain yields, in arid and semi-arid regions of western India. A sequence of 20-year (1981–2000) monthly maximum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and monthly rainfall from 160 stations were examined to study the seasonal patterns and their relation to ENSO activity. In addition, a direct (ENSO-crop yield) linkage and an intermediate (ENSO-NDVI) linkage of agricultural responses to ENSO were also investigated. The results indicate below-normal seasonal NDVI and rainfall associated with El Nino (warm) events, except during 1997, while positive anomalies occur during La Nina (cold) events. Sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies from NINO 3 region (5°N–5°S; 150°W–90°W), as an indicator of ENSO were significantly correlated with NDVI anomalies, rainfall anomalies and yield anomalies but the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) was significantly related to NDVI anomalies only. NDVI anomaly patterns correspond to rainfall variability including that associated with ENSO activity. The observed strong intermediate linkage between yield anomalies and NDVI anomaly signal (r = 0.609) indicates that NDVI is an ideal index for understanding and analysing agricultural response to ENSO climate teleconnections.