Investigating the unprecedented summer 2022 penetration of the Indian monsoon to Iran and evaluation of global and regional model forecasts

Abstract

The Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) significantly impacts the climate of the Asian continent. During the summer of 2022, the penetration of monsoonal waves towards higher latitudes led to severe and unprecedented floods in various parts of Iran, Pakistan, and southern Afghanistan. In this study, we utilized meteorological data from weather stations, satellite remote sensing, reanalysis data, and teleconnection indices to investigate the penetration of monsoonal waves at higher latitudes in Iran. We also employed outputs from two global models, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS), and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) regional model, to examine their forecasts of heavy monsoon rains. Our analysis of teleconnection indices revealed that La Niña, combined with a negative or neutral Dipole Mode Index (DMI) and a positive Indian Monsoon Index (IMI), intensified monsoon-related rainfall in the region. The low-pressure system over India weakened, while the system over central Iran strengthened. Additionally, we observed a meridional rotation of the Somali low-level jet. Generally, southern to southwestern Iran, as well as central and eastern regions, receive moisture from the Arabian Sea due to southerly and easterly winds from water surfaces. Comparing forecasts with 2–7 days lead times and extended 10–15 days from the CFS and GFS global models demonstrated that neither of models accurately predicted the observed range of rainfall over Iran in the extended period. However, the WRF regional model predictions were significantly better. We also discovered that the 48-hour forecast from the WRF model outperformed other forecasts for this case study.