Abstract
Small-scale pig farming is highly important to the economic and social status of households in Timor-Leste. The presence of an African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak in Timor-Leste was confirmed in 2019, a major concern given that around 70% of agricultural households practice pig farming. This research used a virtual spatial group model building process to construct a concept model to better understand the main feedback loops that determine the socio-economic and livelihood impacts of the ASF outbreak. After discussing the interaction of reinforcing and balancing feedback loops in the concept model, potential leverage points for intervention are suggested that could reduce the impacts of ASF within socio-economic spheres. These include building trust between small-scale farmers and veterinary technicians, strengthening government veterinary services, and the provision of credit conditional on biosecurity investments to help restock the industry. This conceptual model serves as a starting point for further research and the future development of a quantitative system dynamics (SD) model which would allow ex-ante scenario-testing of various policy and technical mitigation strategies of ASF outbreaks in Timor-Leste and beyond. Lessons learned from the blended offline/online approach to training and workshop facilitation are also explored in the paper.
Highlights
Small-scale pig farming plays a vital role within Timorese economic and social spheres
Very few of the farmers had a relationship with the local veterinary technician (VT) and relied on traditional methods or medicine purchased from the local agricultural input supplier to maintain healthy pigs
Participants were selected for the research through the networks of VT associated with Ministry of Agricultural and Fisheries (MAF). This limited the representation of value chain (VC) actors in the study and potentially swayed the prioritization of problems. This first-time application of a blended, hybrid online/offline spatial group model building (SGMB) process in Timor-Leste resulted in a rich conceptual model of the socio-economic and livelihood impacts of African Swine Fever (ASF) in Timor-Leste
Summary
Small-scale pig farming plays a vital role within Timorese economic and social spheres. Pigs are highly valued for cultural ceremonies, with pork consumption outside of these times being relatively low [3]. The average herd of a small-scale farmer is valued at US$ 1200, making pigs the largest contributor to household incomes from the livestock sector [2, 3]. This is a significant savings stock in a country where 70% of the population lives on less than US$ 3.20 per day [3]
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