Investigating the severity of single-vehicle truck crashes under different crash types using mixed logit models

Abstract

Introduction: Almost 90% of fatal road crashes occur in developing countries. Among these countries, Iran has a noticeable fatal crash rate of 21.47 deaths per 100,000 persons. Improving the safety of trucks is of particular importance in Iran where road freight is used to transport almost 90% of the commodities. Researchers have suggested dichotomizing crashes into single- and multi-vehicle categories and found that when this is performed vast differences can be identified between the mechanisms behind these categories of crashes, particularly when investigating truck crashes. Method: This study investigated single-vehicle truck crashes in Khorasan Razavi province in Iran from 2013 to 2021. Likelihood ratio tests were employed to show that separate models are statistically valid for different crash types. Subsequently, three mixed logit crash-type models were developed to investigate 5,703 single-vehicle truck crashes. Results: Four significant variables were exclusive to collisions with an object (brake failure, ABS, primary roads, and rainy or snowy weather), five significant variables were associated with run-off-road crashes (driving a loaded truck, speed limit (>60 km/h), paved shoulders, driving uphill, and inability to control the truck), and three significant variables were associated with overturn crashes (overloaded truck, curved roads, and changing direction suddenly). In all crash types, both fastening the seatbelt and speeding were found to be significant factors. Conclusion: The research highlights the need to analyze single-vehicle truck crashes using distinct crash type models and highlights the unique contributing factors of three common single-vehicle crash types. Practical applications: The study presents recommendations for policy to address key crash risks for trucks in Iran, including education and training to improve driver experience, compliance with seat belt usage, enforcement of speeding, and vehicle technologies to monitor drivers.