Investigating the role of antecedent SMAP satellite soil moisture, radar rainfall and MODIS vegetation on runoff production in an agricultural region

Abstract

Following results by Crow et al. (2017) [Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 5495–5503] on the impact of antecedent soil moisture on runoff production, we investigate total runoff production during individual rainfall-runoff events in agricultural landscapes as a function of antecedent soil moisture, total rainfall, and vegetation cover for catchments with drainage areas ranging from 80 to 1000 km2 in the state of Iowa, USA. For our study, we use Enhanced SMAP soil moisture estimates, the MODIS enhanced vegetation index (EVI), gauge-corrected Stage IV radar rainfall, and USGS streamflow data. We analyze the event runoff ratio as a function of event-scale rainfall, antecedent SMAP soil moisture and soil-moisture-deficit-normalized rainfall for the events in a period from March 31, 2015 to October 31, 2018. Our goal is to confirm the relationships identified by Crow et al. (2017) in heavily managed agricultural landscapes and to refine some of their methodological steps to quantify the role of additional variables controlling runoff production. To this end, we define three different strategies to identify rainfall-runoff events and add a baseflow separation step to better insulate event scale stormflow runoff. We test the effects of antecedent soil moisture, rainfall, and vegetation on the event-scale runoff ratio. The antecedent SMAP soil moisture and event-scale rainfall are found to have significant predictive power in estimating event runoff ratio. Soil moisture deficit-normalized rainfall, introduced as the ratio of event-scale rainfall to available space in top soil before initiation of the event, exhibited a more distinct relationship with runoff ratio. The long-term analysis of runoff ratio, rainfall, and MODIS EVI indicated that, in an agricultural region, vegetation plays a significant role in determining event-scale runoff ratios. The methodology and outcome of our study have direct implications on real-time flood forecasting and long-term hydrologic assessments.