Investigating the risk benefit balance of dairy consumption in the Danish population

Abstract

Abstract Background Sustainability and health concerns are driving dietary shifts globally, including changes in consumption of dairy products. Dairy provides essential micronutrients e.g., calcium, iodine, and B12 vitamin, and are a source of high-quality protein. They have also been associated with increased risk of diseases. We estimated the health risk-benefit balance of changes in dairy consumption in the Danish population, formulated as three possible consumption scenarios. Methods We applied a risk-benefit assessment approach to compare the health impact of current consumption with the impact of three alternative scenarios (AS) of dairy consumption. We accounted for beneficial and adverse health impacts associated with dairy and micronutrients and estimated disability adjusted life years (DALY) caused or prevented by the theoretical changes in consumption. Data were collected from the Danish food consumption survey, literature and the Global Burden of Disease Study. Results Results showed that a decrease in consumption of dairy in the overall population from current intake to 270 g/day (AS1) would lead to a loss of 4,865 healthy years annually (3,434; 6,344). The health outcomes contributing more were intellectual disability (men) and type 2 diabetes (women). Negative impacts were larger in men than women. Decreasing consumption would also lead to a higher proportion of women below recommended intake of iodine and of children of calcium. In contrast, increasing consumption to 500g/day (AS2) or to estimated optimal consumption for each health outcome (AS3) would lead to a health benefit (3,853 and 11,354 DALYs averted, respectively). We will present results of scenario analyses and discuss impact of assumptions. Conclusions Our estimates emphasize the need to quantify impacts of dietary changes, including health risks and benefits. They will be useful to inform public health policies that consider both sustainability and health impacts of dietary transitions. Key messages • We estimate that the Danish population will loose approximately 5000 healthy life years annually if dairy intake is decreased from the current level. • We argue that our assessment provide quantitative evidence of the trade-offs of shifts in dairy product intake.