Investigating the relationship between interannual closeness of ice coating and ice thickness in the Chukchi sea and water level variations

Abstract

The hypothesis is tested that there is a significant relationship between changes in water surface level in some areas of the Chukchi Sea and variations in average ice cover thickness and cohesion in them, which can be used to refine short- and long-term forecasts of ice conditions. The results of the GLORYS12v1 global reanalysis and standard methods of mathematical statistics were used for verification. Changes in average ice cohesion were found to be correlated with changes in sea level in some areas from November to June. The correlation between sea level and average ice thickness is traceable only in December. The areas where this correlation is found include numerous sections of the coastal routes of the Northern Sea Route. It is noted that making medium- and long-term forecasts of the development of ice conditions in these areas can be significantly improved by taking into account the current changes in sea level. The identified regularities are important for ensuring safe and sustainable navigation along the Northern Sea Route during the internavigation period for independent navigation of vessels with high ice class and during the winter period when escorted by nuclear-powered icebreakers.