Abstract

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) has imperatively shaken the behavior of the global financial markets. This study estimated the impact of COVID-19 on the behavior of the financial markets of Europe and the US. The results revealed that the returns of the S&P 500 index have been greatly affected by a lockdown in the US owing to COVID-19. However, the health crisis generated due to the novel coronavirus significantly decreased the stock returns of the Nasdaq Composite index. The results also showed that the economic crisis generated from the pandemic in Spain has had more impact on the IBEX 35 as compared to the health crisis itself. On the other hand, in the long-run, Italy’s stock markets are more affected by the health crisis as contrasted with the economic crisis, while, in the short-run, both lockdown conditions and economic instability lower the stock returns of FTSE MIB. The UK stock markets witnessed that in the short-run, deficiency of health management systems imperatively damaged the stock returns of the London Stock Exchange. The investigation revealed that deficiency of health systems and lockdown conditions have imperatively damaged the structure of financial markets, inferring that sustainable development of these nations is at risk due to COVID-19. The study suggested that governments should allocate more of their budget to the health sector to overcome a health crisis in the future.

Highlights

  • Countries affected by a pandemic or epidemic that have seen large loss of life see an impact within the economy and in their financial markets; a specific example would be the spread of Ebola disease in 2013–2016, which caused a loss of 53 billion dollars in the United States (US) (Fernandes, 2020)

  • The F-statistics for joint significance of lagged level parameters are stated as 63.02, 39.11, 5.4, 5.1, 38.2, and 14.03 for Eqs 1–6, respectively. These values surpass the upper bound limits of Shin et al (2014), implying that long-run cointegration exists among economic crisis, health crisis, and financial markets of each equation

  • This investigation utilized the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach to estimate the non-linear impact of economic crisis and health crisis generated as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic on the behavior of financial markets of the most infected territories of Europe and the US

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Summary

Introduction

Countries affected by a pandemic or epidemic that have seen large loss of life see an impact within the economy and in their financial markets; a specific example would be the spread of Ebola disease in 2013–2016, which caused a loss of 53 billion dollars in the US (Fernandes, 2020). The current coronavirus outbreak will aggravate the economic condition, which can pave the way toward financial meltdown (Huang et al, 2020). This pandemic has caused a severe psychological impact on the economy while agitating service industries and financial markets

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