Abstract
The large-scale shifts in weather patterns and an unprecedented change in climate have given rise to the interest in how climate change will affect the carbon emissions of supermarkets. This study investigates the implications of future climatic conditions on the operation of supermarkets in the UK. The investigation was conducted by performing a series of energy modelling simulations on a LIDL supermarket model in London, based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) future weather years provided by the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE). Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) simulations were used to perform the experiment, and the baseline model was validated against the actual data. This investigation ascertains and quantifies the annual energy consumption, carbon emissions, and cooling and heating demand of the supermarket under different climatic projections, which further validate the scientific theory of annual temperature rise as a result of long-term climatic variation. The maximum percentage increase for the annual energy consumption for current and future weather data sets observed was 7.01 and 6.45 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, respectively, and 11.05, 14.07, and 17.68 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. A similar inclining trend in the case of annual CO2 emissions was observed where the peak increase percentage was 6.80 and 6.24 for the 2050s medium emissions scenario, (90th) percentile and high (90th) percentile, respectively and 10.84, 13.84, and 17.45 for the 2080s low emissions scenario, (90th) percentile, medium emissions scenario (90th) percentile and high emissions scenario (90th) percentile, respectively. The study also analyses the future heating and cooling demands of the three warmest months and three coldest months of the year, respectively, to determine future variance in their relative values.
Highlights
Introduction affiliationsThe impact of CO2 emissions within the built environment is a cause for alarm in the UK and globally, especially given the fact that there is little time to make a positive impact.The growing concern over increasing pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has initiated a debate among the UK Government and other sectors of industry to reduce its environmental impact to ensure a sustainable future
A baseline model of a LIDL store is designed in the thermal analysis simulation (TAS) EDSL software package and since the supermarket store is based in London (UK), the current and future Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE) London test reference years (TRY) weather files are chosen for evaluation purposes
United Kingdom part-L (BRUKL) output document. It compares the information of the actual building emissions to the notional building including heating and cooling demand, primary energy, and the total emissions
Summary
The growing concern over increasing pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has initiated a debate among the UK Government and other sectors of industry to reduce its environmental impact to ensure a sustainable future. The UK Government announced the Climate Change Act 2008, introducing a legally binding framework to cut emissions of greenhouse gasses by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels as defined in chapter 27 of the act [1]. The increase in global CO2 and GHG emission levels is mainly attributed to anthropogenic activities as an industrial production system and economic license There is abundant evidence to suggest that global warming is the main contributor to the increase in climatic change [4] and it has an adverse effect on the built environment as it will directly affect the cooling and heating demand of the buildings. The most recent decade (2010–2019) has been on average 0.9 ◦ C warmer across the UK than the period
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