Investigating the nexus between trade policy uncertainty and environmental quality in the USA: empirical evidence from aggregate and disaggregate level analysis.

Abstract

Worldwide, environmental sustainability is a hot topic, particularly in industrialized countries due to their higher emission intensity. Environmental conservation and equitable economic growth have been prioritized in economic debate and policy development. Over the past three decades, the USA's emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2e) have risen exponentially, as trade policy uncertainty (TPU). In this circumstance, this paper aims to contribute to the existing literature by exploring the effect of TPU on environmental quality by controlling the energy consumption, economic growth, and population in the USA over the period 1985M1 to 2022M3 employing the augmented ARDL and NARDL procedures in the presence of structural breaks. From our analysis, the results revealed that TPU affects negatively CO2e in the residential sector, and negative changes in TPU positively affect CO2e in the commercial sector both in the long and short run. On the other side, the outcomes show that energy consumption is a crucial key determinant factor in environmental degradation at the aggregate level and in all sectors. Furthermore, our findings clarify that economic growth upsurges the CO2e at the aggregate level precisely in the industrial and residential sectors. Juxtaposing, in the long run, the results indicate that population growth could make additional pressure on environmental quality at the aggregate level, especially in commercial, power generation, and residential sectors. Accordingly, it is clear from our results that the regulations put in place to encourage Americans to buy locally created goods instead of those imported, especially in light of the high levels of TPU, maybe the best option to decrease the long-term impact of international trade on the environment to achieve sustainable development goals (SDGs).