INVESTIGATING THE INTERRELATION OF COST RISKS IN LARGE-SCALE PROJECTS WITH A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Abstract

Large-scale projects are considered the riskiest projects due to their multidisciplinary nature and complexity. The main risk factors include a high project budget, technical challenges during project implementation that did not exist before, continuous project change orders, and environmental factors governing them. On the other hand, the project manager sometimes cannot correctly manage project risks and solve problems by applying traditional approaches despite spending enormous resources. Limitations of traditional risk management methods based on separate consideration of the impact of each risk and not considering the interrelations of risks, causal relationships between them, and the dynamic behavior of risk factors during the project lead project managers to resort to new methods such as dynamic risk management and the interaction of risks. Therefore, considering the number and position of large-scale projects within Iran and their role in economic and technical development, the present study is essential. In this study, by presenting a classified list of risks of large-scale projects, risks interaction will be identified, and then using the obtained relationships, we will present a dynamic model with the interaction of all risk factors on each other.