Investigating the impact of climate change on river ice thickness across the Northern Belt of United States

Abstract

ABSTRACT Since the knowledge of ice thickness plays a crucial role in the design of infrastructure near waterways, estimation of future ice thickness is essential to evaluate the impact of future climate change on ice thickness. In this research, 10 rivers were identified in the northern belt of the USA. First, a modified Stefan’s equation was calibrated to estimate the ice thickness in the rivers based on the meteorological data. In the next step, it was used to predict future ice thickness using bias-corrected future climate data from 10 climate models and 4 emission scenarios. Finally, a comparative assessment of historical and future ice thickness was presented for several rivers. The analysis suggested that predicted ice thickness decreased approximately by 13% to 35% in the first half of the 21st century, which was followed by a decrease in 30% to 57% in the second half. Similarly, the start date of average freezing degree days (AFDD) can be expected to advance to the late winter, whereas the maximum AFDD period can be expected to move to the early winter. Finally, the mid-and late-century ice thickness of 10 rivers was found to be linearly correlated with the historical ice thickness of this region.