Abstract
BackgroundThe transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents’ characteristic in epidemic areas.Methodology/Principal FindingsWe examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) for rice paddies were extracted from MODIS data. Cross-correlation analysis were carried out to explore correlation between climatic variables and food available with monthly rodent data. We used auto-regressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables and food supply to rodent density. The results indicated that relative rodent density of HFRS host was significantly correlated with monthly mean temperatures, monthly accumulative precipitation, TVDI and NDVI with lags of 1–6 months.Conclusions/SignificanceFood available plays a significant role in population fluctuations of HFRS host in Changsha. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.
Highlights
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodentborne viral disease caused by different species of hantaviruses, is characterized with fever, hemorrhage, headache, back pain, abdominal pain, and acute kidney injury [1]
The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of climatic variables and food available on the host density of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome using data from rodent host population dynamics, climatic variables and food available in Changsha
The results indicated that the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) was capable of forecasting 1-step ahead future rodent density relatively well
Summary
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodentborne viral disease caused by different species of hantaviruses, is characterized with fever, hemorrhage, headache, back pain, abdominal pain, and acute kidney injury [1]. In western and central Europe one of the most important hantavirus is Puumala virus [3,4], while in China there are two predominant species of hantavirus, Hantaan and Seoul virus, each of which has co-evolved with a distinct rodent host [5]. Through a series of measures that improve environment, vaccinate and control population of rodents, there is a trend towards declined incidence of HFRS in China, but it is still the highest incidence of HFRS in the world, and a total of 53,471 cases were reported from 2006 to 2010 in China [7]. Hunan Province is the province with one of the highest incidence of HFRS in China, and its capital city Changsha bears a large HFRS burden in Hunan Province. The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is important to better understand rodents’ characteristic in epidemic areas
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