Investigating the effects of climate change, drought, and agricultural sector policies on the trend of the water poverty index in Iran

Abstract

Abstract Since climate change, intermittent droughts with various severities, poor management and uncontrolled abstraction of water resources, and inattention to the balance of these resources have caused the water crisis in recent decades, it is vitally important to study the water scarcity, its changes in the future, and the effect of climate change and drought on the scarcity through appropriate management policies in the agricultural sector. To achieve this goal, the present study selected the Fasa plain in Iran and calculated its water poverty index (WPI) from 2008 to 2018 using parametric and non-parametric statistical tests. Also, the study calculated the correlation coefficient between the WPI and climate change and drought in the study area. It then evaluated the effects of water resources management policies in the agricultural sector on the poverty index. The results showed that water consumption had the greatest weight in calculating the WPI. The WPI has fluctuated between 0.297 and 0.678 in the Fasa plain, and the worst situation of water poverty was experienced in 2014. Despite its insignificance, the downward trend in the WPI showed that water resources management has become more unfavorable over time. Finally, it was concluded that the WPI in the Fasa plain was more dependent on drought than on climate change in the short term. Therefore, managing water resource consumption in this plain is vitally important, especially in drought conditions. The results also showed that reducing water consumption in the agricultural sector can significantly improve the WPI. Therefore, solving the water crisis in this plain, given the drought conditions and its future trend, requires policies improving water-use efficiency in the agricultural sector.