Investigating the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on SOC storage and cumulative CO2 emissions in forest soils across altitudinal gradients using the century model

Abstract

This study investigated the impact of climate change, grazing, manure application, and liming on soil organic carbon (SOC) stock and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in forest soils across different altitudes. Despite similar soil texture, acidity, and salinity across elevations, SOC stock significantly increased with altitude due to cooler temperatures and higher precipitation. The highest SOC stock (97.46 t ha−1) was observed at 2000–2500 m, compared to the lowest (44.23 t ha−1) at 500–1000 m. The Century C Model accurately predicted SOC stock, with correlation and determination coefficients exceeding 0.98. A climate change scenario projecting decreased precipitation (2.15 mm per decade) and increased temperature (0.4 °C) revealed potential SOC stock losses ranging from 28.36 to 36.35 %, particularly at higher altitudes. Grazing further decreased SOC stock, with a more pronounced effect at higher elevations. However, manure application (40 t ha−1 every four years) and liming (7–10 t ha−1 every three years) had positive effects on SOC stock, again amplified at higher altitudes and with an increase in lime application rate. In scenarios combining climate change with manure application and climate change with liming, manure application and liming mitigated some negative impacts of climate change, but could not fully offset them, resulting in 1.49–5.42 % and 0.39–4.07 % decreases respectively. Simulations of cumulative CO2 emissions mirrored the distribution of SOC stock, with higher emissions observed at higher altitudes and with management practices that increased SOC stock. This study emphasizes the critical role of conserving high-altitude forest soils and implementing optimal forest management strategies to combat climate change by minimizing SOC losses.