Abstract
This study investigates the effect of uncertainty characteristics of renewable energy resources on the flexibility of a power system. The more renewable energy resources introduced, the greater the imbalance between load and generation. Securing the flexibility of the system is becoming important to manage this situation. The degree of flexibility cannot be independent of the uncertainty of the power system. However, most existing studies on flexibility have not explicitly considered the effects of uncertainty characteristics. Therefore, this study proposes a method to quantitatively analyze the effect of uncertainty characteristics on power system flexibility. Here, the uncertainties of the power system indicate the net load forecast error, which can be represented as a probability distribution. Of the characteristics of the net load forecast error, skewness and kurtosis were considered. The net load forecast error was modeled with a Pearson distribution, which has been widely used to generate the probability density function with skewness and kurtosis. Scenarios for the forecast net load, skewness, and kurtosis were generated, and their effects on flexibility were evaluated. The simulation results for the scenarios based on a modified IEEE-RTS-96 revealed that skewness is more effective than kurtosis. The proposed method can help system operators to efficiently respond to changes in the uncertainty characteristics of renewable energy resources.
Highlights
This study investigates the effect of uncertainty characteristics of renewable energy resources on the flexibility of a power system
The system operator should determine an adequate level of flexibility, ibility enhancement is necessary to deal with the forecast error, which indicates the which can be quantified using the ramping capability shortage probability (RSP) index
This study does not focus on evaluating the flexibility related to the load-generation balance for the whole period but rather on analyzing the effect on flexibility according to the changes in the NLFE characteristics
Summary
This study investigates the effect of uncertainty characteristics of renewable energy resources on the flexibility of a power system. Scenarios for the forecast net load, skewness, and kurtosis were generated, and their effects on flexibility were evaluated. The proposed method can help system operators to efficiently respond to changes in the uncertainty characteristics of renewable energy resources. To enhance the realizability of this plan and revitalize the related industrial ecosystems under these plans, the Fifth Renewable Energy Basic Plan was established in 2020 [5] Along with these policy and institutional efforts, one of the essentials in introducing massive renewable energy resources (RERs) is to enhance the flexibility of power systems, comprehensive strategies considering the energy sector coupled with using technologies such as power to gas (P2G) and power to heat (P2H) count [6]. It is related to improving the related infrastructure and system, such as the development of market mechanisms for flexibly supplying resources and preemptive network reinforcement, and advancing the RER output forecasting technique and the flexibility-considered operation [11,12]
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