Investigating the Effect of the Broadband Penetration on the Main Economic Variables in the Form of a Macro-Econometric Model

Abstract

The present study is aimed at evaluating the effects of broadband penetration on the main macroeconomic variables. To this end, a macroeconomic structural pattern is set which is consistent with Iran's economic condition. The equations of the model are estimated inARDL framework using the time series data from 1979 to 2013 in constant prices. Then by using a dynamic simulation model, the pattern's validation test was done. The results reveal that the regulatory pattern can easily trace the movement process of the variables in the studied area. Next, to see the effects of the modification of the broadband penetration rate, considering the proposed quantitative targets in the infrastructure development document of the National Information Network, two scenarios are examined.Based on the results of the first scenario (a gradual increase in household penetration rate) and the second scenario (a sudden increase in household penetration rate ), it is suggested that in order for the broadband penetration to have more beneficial impact on the country’s economy, the sudden increase in household penetration rate should be applied. This is because a gradual increase in household penetration rate will have negative effects on the macroeconomics variables in the long run, with the sudden increase having positive effects.