Investigating the consequences of the desiccation of lakes in the Middle East and Central Asia for regional dust activity

<p>The 'Aralkum' desert (the former Aral Sea) in Central Asia is a comparatively new desert that has formed over the past several decades due to water mismanagement associated with the inflowing Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, and is now a known source of dust aerosol in the region. It is known that recently dry lakebeds can be efficient dust sources, due to the availability of readily erodible alluvial sediments. As a dry lakebed with a new area of over 60,000 km<sup>2</sup> exposed to aeolian wind erosion the Aralkum has become a significant driver of dust storms in the region. Other such lakebed dust sources in the Central Asian region include the Sistan Basin on the border between Afghanistan and Iran, and Lake Urmia in Iran. However due to a paucity of measurement sites it is difficult to quantify the behaviour and consequences of dust activity in the region.</p><p>Using the dust transport model COSMO-MUSCAT we simulate dust emissions over the course of one year from these relatively new dust sources, exploring the resultant dust emission and transport patterns, quantifying the radiative effects of this dust, and assessing the viability of measuring such dust using remote sensing techniques. Making use of the Global Surface Water dataset (produced by the Copernicus Programme) in order to define the surface water coverage in various epochs, we make estimates of dust emissions for the Central Asian and Middle Eastern region under three scenarios: 1) the 'Past', representative of water coverage in the 1980s; 2) the 'Present', representative of water coverage in the 2010s; and 3) the 'Aralkum' scenario, representing only dust emissions from the present-era Aralkum. In the Present scenario we estimate that the Aralkum area (here considered as 43-47°N, 58-62°E) emitted 28 Tg of dust over the course of a year from March 2015 to March 2016, out of 272 Tg produced by the wider Middle Eastern and Central Asian region. However ~66% of these Aralkum emissions occurred when the cloud cover was > 95%, raising questions as to the extent to which dust storm activity from the Aralkum is measurable. Modelling is therefore a particularly useful tool, complementary to remote sensing measurements, to understand dust activity in a region characterised by dramatic human-induced changes to the natural environment.</p>

<p>The formation of the ‘Aralkum’ desert in Central Asia, as a consequence of the severe desiccation of the Aral Sea since the 1960s, has created a major new source of dust aerosol in the region. Recently dried lakebeds can be efficient dust sources, due to the availability of readily erodible sediments, and as a dry lakebed with an area of over 60,000 km<sup>2</sup> exposed to wind erosion the Aralkum has become a significant driver of dust storms in the region. However due to a paucity of ground-based remote sensing sites in Central Asia it is difficult to quantify the behaviour and consequences of dust activity in the region.</p><p> </p><p>Using the dust transport model COSMO-MUSCAT we perform a one-year simulation of dust emission from the Aralkum and other desiccating lakes in Central Asia, exploring the resultant dust emission and transport patterns and assessing the viability of measuring such dust using remote sensing techniques. Making use of the Global Surface Water dataset (produced by the Copernicus Programme) in order to define the surface water coverage in various epochs, we make estimates of dust emissions for the Central Asian and Middle Eastern region under three scenarios: 1) the ‘Past’, representative of water coverage in the 1980s; 2) the ‘Present’, representative of water coverage in the 2010s; and 3) the ‘Aralkum’ scenario, representing only dust emissions from the present-era Aralkum.</p><p> </p><p>In the Present scenario we estimate that the Aralkum area (here considered as 43-47°N, 58-62°E) emitted 27.1 Tg of dust over the course of a year from March 2015 to March 2016, while in the Past scenario it emitted 14.3 Tg. However ~68% of these Aralkum emissions occurred when the cloud cover was > 95%, raising questions as to the extent to which dust storm activity from the Aralkum is measurable by standard remote sensing techniques. Exploring the patterns of wind direction and dust emission, we find that of the 27.1 Tg of dust emitted by the Aralkum during the Present scenario, 14.5 Tg were driven by westerly winds, and as a result of this the longest transport pathways are simulated to be to the east. This is in contrast to several previous studies (during previous years) of Aralkum dust which have shown more typical easterly and north-easterly dust emission patterns. Analysis of ERA5 wind data over a 15-year period reveals that there is a high degree of interannual variability as to the direction of the strongest surface winds over the Aralkum, and hence the directions of emitted dust will also vary substantially from year to year.</p>

The article examines the negative impact of global trends that have engulfed the world on the countries of the Middle East and Central Asia and the issue of ensuring security from threats. Currently, the impact on the Middle East and Central Asia of the problems of the economic crisis, inflation, unemployment, investment outflow, tension between Russia and Ukraine, the growth of conflict points in the regions, conflict between actors, etc. is being analyzed. Passive threats, known today in the Middle East and Central Asia and which in the future may overshadow its range, will also become the core of the article and will be subjected to serious analysis. Recently, an even greater aggravation of the situation between Israel and Palestine has been considered, as well as the intensification and strengthening of the Israeli military operation in the Gaza Strip, which the world is watching, and the aggravation of relations between the parties. The influence of external actors on regional trends in the Middle East and Central Asia is also analyzed.

Mineral dust particles play a vital role in climate and the Earth's energy budget and can have impact on weather systems. It has both direct (dust-radiation effect) and indirect (dust-microphysical effect) impacts on the energy budget effect. The most important sources of dust aerosols are located in the Northern Hemisphere, primarily over the Sahara in North Africa, the Middle East, Central and South Asia respectively and Central Asia is under the influence of mineral dust. The objective of this study to carry out intensity and frequency analysis of sand and dust storm in Central Asia for the period 2003-2017 and compare the results with global values as well as the values of the Middle East region. The AOD and AE parameters can be used to differentiate between coarse and fine particles of aerosols. To investigate average annual and monthly AOD (aerosol optical depth) and AE (angstrom exponent) for the period 2003-2017, AOD and AE data of MODIS Aqua is obtained from Giovanni website. In summary, for the last years (2013-2017), annual mean AOD is comparably lower than the other periods while the values are the highest between 2008 and 2012 for both Central Asia and Middle East. The results point out that there is no increasing trend in AOD values for the recent years and annual Central Asia AOD values show a similar trend with the Middle East AOD values.

The source contributions to the dust over the Tibetan Plateau: A modelling analysis

Nowadays, dried lake beds constitute the largest source of saline dust storms, with serious environmental and health issues in the surrounding areas. In this study, we examined the spatial–temporal distribution of monthly and annual dust events of varying intensity (dust in suspension, blowing dust, dust storms) in the vicinity of the desiccated Urmia Lake in northwestern (NW) Iran, based on horizontal visibility data during 2009–2022. Dust in suspension, blowing dust and dust storm events exhibited different monthly patterns, with higher frequencies between March and October, especially in the southern and eastern parts of the Urmia Basin. Furthermore, the intra-annual variations in aerosol optical depth at 500 nm (AOD550) and Ångström exponent at 412/470 nm (AE) were investigated using Terra/Aqua MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data over the Urmia Lake Basin (36–39°N, 44–47°E). Monthly distributions of potential coarse aerosol (AE < 1) sources affecting the lower troposphere over the Urmia Basin were reconstructed, synergizing Terra/Aqua MODIS AOD550 for AE < 1 values and HYSPLIT_4 backward trajectories. The reconstructed monthly patterns of the potential sources were compared with the monthly spatial distribution of Terra MODIS AOD550 in the Middle East and Central Asia (20–70°E, 20–50°N). The results showed that deserts in the Middle East and the Aral–Caspian arid region (ACAR) mostly contribute to dust aerosol load over the Urmia Lake region, exhibiting higher frequency in spring and early summer. Local dust sources from dried lake beds further contribute to the dust AOD, especially in the western part of the Urmia Basin during March and April. The modeling (DREAM8-NMME-MACC) results revealed high concentrations of near-surface dust concentrations, which may have health effects on the local population, while distant sources from the Middle East are the main controlling factors to aerosol loading over the Urmia Basin.

The article considers the problem of regional security which is on the agenda of the international community. Russia and Turkey as two politically and economically interconnected countries have a rich history of relations. The Middle East and Central Asia where their national interests overlap are priority directions at the present stage. However, disagreements in conflict resolution do not allow reaching a compromise and entering a new level of interaction. At the beginning of the 21st century Russia and Turkey showed an interest in strengthening regional security and achieving peace and stability. Although the incident in November of 2015 slowed down the development of cooperation and caused the refusal to maintain friendly contacts Moscow and Ankara realized the need to overcome differences and follow the provisions of concluded treaties and agreements. The beginning of a special military operation in Ukraine on the 24th of February of 2022 showed their complex and ambiguous interaction in the Middle East and Central Asia. The aim of the article is to identify the approaches of Russia and Turkey in strengthening regional security.

This study aims at offering a closer view of pointed domes as the most significant and important cultural features of Eastern domes in the Middle East and Central Asia. In contrast to previous general historical studies, this study addresses the better comprehension of a formal architectural language of the pointed domes including their morphologies and typologies based on epistemological premise of pointed domes' structuralism. It starts with defining the proper terminology of the pointed dome type, then, by analytic consideration of selected examples, the study proposes their origin, evolution, formal morphological constitutions, geometrical designs, and finally definitions of three typologies and subtypes of the pointed domes based on their shells' compositions and geometrical profiles, from the twelfth through sixteenth centuries. Despite varieties of forms and configurations of Islamic domes, the research puts forward some recurring features and shared characteristics that are incorporated into a specific style, that is pointed domes. Furthermore, this study on the significance of pointed domes brings to light undiscovered facts about the essences of traditional dome constructions in the Middle East and Central Asia which may be employed in providing historical documentation for any conservation interventions.

Dust particles can consist of either natural soil-borne particles or of particulate matter from human activities, or both of them. Particulate matter is a complex mixture of extremely small particles and liquid droplets consisting of soil or dust particles, metals, organic chemicals, and acids. Naturally generated particles consist of weathered rock materials, dryland soil and sediment materials, biogenic fibres and residues from forest fires, and ash developed during volcanic eruptions. World dust emissions from drylands amount to about 5 billion Mg per year. Dominant dust sources around the world are almost wholly in or adjacent to the great drylands of the northern hemisphere. The greatest of these includes a large belt from the western Sahara to the Yellow Sea, across North Africa, the Middle East, northwest India, and central and eastern Asia. Saharan dust, driven by the northeast trade winds, takes about a week to cross the Atlantic Ocean, reaching northeastern South America the Caribbean, Central America, and the southeastern USA. The mid latitude deserts of Asia are a source of substantial airborne dust, especially during spring and early summer. Mongolia and the Tarim Basin-Taklamakan Desert are the two major dust sources of China. They are also of worldwide importance, as fine dusts from these regions have been traced to North America, Greenland and Europe. Other notable sources of dusts include the Great Basin of the USA and, in the southern hemisphere, central and northern Argentina, parts of southern Africa and East-central Australia. Former lake basins are major sources of fine, readily wind-entrained mineral dusts, which may include salts and elevated levels of toxic elements. For example, the Bodele depression in Chad (North Africa) and the numerous lake depressions in central Asia (e.g. Aral Sea region) and northern China are major dust sources of global significance. Sea spray produces aerosols containing particles that are commonly of salt, but can also contain radionuclides.

SME Financial Inclusion for Sustained Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia

This paper offers empirical evidence that greater financial inclusion of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) can promote higher economic growth and employment, especially in the Middle East and Central Asia regions. First, we show that countries with higher SME financial inclusion exhibit more effective monetary policy transmission and tax collection. Second, we find substantial employment and labor productivity growth gains at the firm level from access to credit, gains that are higher for SMEs. We also obtain evidence of a substantial positive impact on SME employment and labor productivity growth from improved credit bureau coverage and insolvency regimes. Finally, cross-country aggregate evidence confirms the employment and growth gains from SME financial inclusion, which appear larger in the Middle East and Central Asia than in other regions.

Natural Minerogenic Dust and Human Health

Theory: Literature on ethnic protest in the Middle East and Central Asia does not provide empirical measures necessary for rigorous hypothesis testing, nor does it incorporate a comprehensive theoretical foundation needed to identify the conditions for ethnic protest. There is also no consensus on the causes of ethnic protest in the Middle East and Central Asia. Hypotheses: To improve our ability to explain ethnic protest in the Middle East and Central Asia and to identify the necessary conditions for ethnic dissent, we test five hypotheses embodied in grievance and political mobilization. The literature on ethnic protest in the Middle East and Central Asia references both models but does not systematically test their relevance. Methodology: We use Logistic Regression to test the explanatory potential of the five hypotheses of the Grievance and Mobilization models. We use Ted Gurr's Minorities at Risk data set, which presents data on 40 ethnic groups in the Middle East and Central Asia. The dependent variable is protest for 1990-95. Findings: Our research does not lend much empirical support for the grievance model, which dominates the Middle Eastern and Central Asian area study literature. Cultural identity and religious freedom variables of grievance model do not provide sufficient condition for the outbreak of ethnic protest. The mobilization model has better explanatory power. It lends significant support to the three hypotheses associated with the mobilization model and suggests that ethnic protest is more likely to occur under conditions of organizational cohesiveness, low levels of autocracy, and international support.

Countries of the Middle East and Central Asia depend heavily on natural resources for their exports, income, and employment. This study is a preliminary investigation that explores the effect of natural resources on domestic investment in a sample of 12 highly resource-dependent countries in the Middle East and Central Asia from 2000 to 2019. The recently advanced cross-sectional dependent auto-regressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) model and panel quantile regression are employed. The results validate the accelerator theory that an increase of the non-oil GDP growth rate has a robust positive impact on domestic investment, while natural resources crowd-out domestic investment. The long-run estimate of ICT reveals a significant positive impact, while corruption shows a significant negative effect. These findings urge sample resource-dependent countries to focus on developing ICT-based enterprises and control prevailing corruption levels. Moreover, adopting liberal trade policies can also enhance domestic investment opportunities.

A new application of multi-criteria decision making in identifying critical dust sources and comparing three common receptor-based models