Investigating the Characteristics and Predictability of Measured Wind Speed Data Over Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Abstract

This study aims to characterize the wind regime in the state of Rio de Janeiro (SRJ), Brazil, and relate it to the physiographic aspects and influence of meteorological systems, based on 12 Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) automatic meteorological stations, for the period from 2008 to 2019. Box plots are used for the assessment of monthly and hourly patterns. Similarity was found among the stations at a monthly and daily scale. On the monthly scale, there were two well-defined cycles, a minimum (between February and July) and a maximum (between August and November), both greatly influenced by frontal systems (FS). On the hourly scale, there was a decrease in the intensity of the wind during the night and early morning, followed by an intensification in wind patterns between 11 h to 20 h, except for the Arraial do Cabo and Petropolis stations. The stations that are located near the Serra do Mar ridge and Sepetiba Bay presented prevailing N, SW, W, ENE and NE winds, respectively. Arraial do Cabo station is located near the state’s shoreline and in the resurgence region, with predominant NE and E wind directions. Petropolis station is located in the Mountainous region, with NNW and NW wind directions. The logistic regression model identified that the rainfall, temperature (air, maximum and wet bulb) and relative humidity contributed to the probability of wind velocity above the 70 percentile (WS70) occurring in the SRJ. The South American Convergence Zone (SACZ) and FS acted as triggers of the WS70 in different areas of the state, where the influence of the SACZ was stronger than that of the FS.