Abstract
A recently developed beach change model was investigated to assess its predictive capability with respect to shoreline change. This investigation formed part of a number of analyses being conducted to assess the capability of the numerical model. The model was firstly compared to a commonly used commercial model to assess its output on wave and sediment responses. Secondly, the beach changes were investigated to determine a likely probability density function for the shoreline responses. A number of probability density functions were compared with the results and critical deductions were made. Lastly, the new beach change model has a distinctive feature which attempts to reduce the model run-time to promote greater use. This wave-averaging feature was investigated to determine model performance as parameters were changed. It was shown that the model compares favorably to the commercial package in some aspects, but not all. The shoreline response may be best described by a single probability density function, which makes it quite suitable for quantitative risk analyses. Lastly, the wave-averaging feature can be used to reduce runtime although this requires the user to apply sound judgment in the analyses.
Highlights
All coastlines are subject to accretion and erosion processes
Most islands of the Caribbean region fall into this subset of countries that rely on the coastlines to support their economies but are unable to dedicate the resources to engage in comprehensive investigations
There may be some variations in the wave heights, nearbed velocities and sediment transport rates of the new model when compared to the relevant MIKE 21 models
Summary
Background All coastlines are subject to accretion and erosion processes. In addition, many areas such as the Caribbean region rely heavily on these coastlines for tourism. Coastal Zone Management is a challenging task that attempts to indicate the optimal course of action in a given coastal management unit through reliance on data and data analyses This exercise usually involves the commitment of significant resources to ensure effectiveness of the exercise and produce useful results. Most islands of the Caribbean region fall into this subset of countries that rely on the coastlines to support their economies but are unable to dedicate the resources to engage in comprehensive investigations. These countries usually need to commit the limited resources to other planning or infrastructural activities and not enough resources are allocated to coastal planning and management undertakings. A coastal morphological numerical model was developed to be freely disseminated for use by the relevant Caribbean organizations, so that effective planning and management can occur in the coastal zones
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