Investigating the aspiration and feasibility of a Turkish shift to nuclear weapons Is Erdogan’s narrative something to fear?

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate why Türkiye might be interested in acquiring nuclear weapons and pursuing armament, and understand whether its nuclear aspirations are truly feasible. In line with existing theoretical nuclear armament models, particularly through realist and idealist views, this paper will determine whether nuclear proliferation in Türkiye can be expected. Considering that in recent years the Middle East region has had points of tension in relation to nuclear developments, it is essential to consider the ways in which international norms, Türkiye’s domestic context, and the role of political figures have impacted Ankara’s nuclear energy policy and demands for nuclear Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). By providing a detailed critique, and by taking into account the significance of the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2023 Presidential elections, this article will provide a nuanced understanding to Türkiye’s foreign and domestic policies, whilst providing a new perspective to armament theories.