Abstract
Investigating the spatiotemporal trends and trade-off/synergy relationships among ecosystem services can provide effective support for urban planning and decision making toward sustainable development. With Nanjing city in China as a case study, this study assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of six key ecosystem services from 2005 to 2030. Integration of Markov-cellular automata and ecosystem services models was realized to analyze the potential impacts of future urbanization on ecosystem services by simulating business-as-usual (BAU), cropland protection (CP), and ecological restoration (ER) scenarios. Furthermore, an innovative trade-off/synergy degree was developed to quantify the magnitude of the complex relationship among the multiple ecosystem services under the different scenarios. Due to the rapid expansion of built-up land, carbon storage, habitat quality, and air purification decreased 2.92%, 5.80%, and 7.91%, respectively. The CP scenario exhibited the highest crop production values, and the ER scenario was a better urban development strategy that enhanced the regulating ecosystem services at the expense of crop production. To promote urban ecosystem services and minimize trade-offs, we proposed certain future urban development strategies, including ecological corridor construction and compact development. The study could provide a scientific reference for the effective ecosystem management of Nanjing and other rapidly urbanized regions.
Highlights
Ecosystem services refer to the direct or indirect products and services obtained from ecosystems that are prerequisites for the survival, health, and livelihood of the human population (Raudsepp-Hearne et al 2010)
Our study proved that continuous urban expansion has imposed major impacts on multiple ecosystem services from 2005 to 2015 in Nanjing, scenario analysis provides a better understanding of the potential effects of development policies on ecosystem services
We examined the spatiotemporal dynamics of six types of ecosystem services in Nanjing city over the period of 2005–2015
Summary
Ecosystem services refer to the direct or indirect products and services obtained from ecosystems that are prerequisites for the survival, health, and livelihood of the human population (Raudsepp-Hearne et al 2010). According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA) report, approximately 60% of the world’s ecosystem services exhibit a degradation trend, which have a serious impact on human well-being and directly threaten the sustainable development (MEA 2005). This is especially the case in urban area, where the ecosystem services experienced significant degradation due to the intensifying ecosystem-humanity interactions (Schröter et al 2005). 701 Page 2 of 23 experienced rapid urbanization, with an urban population accounting for 29.5% of the total population in 1950, increasing to 55.3% in 2018 (United Nations 2019) This rapid growth trend is likely to continue without any signs of slowing down. Because the function and structure of ecosystems are altered, the above transformation process has resulted in the loss of urban ecosystem services, such as reduced soil conservation (Sun and Li 2017), decreased carbon storage (He et al 2016), and degraded air quality (Parsa et al 2019), and in turn, the deterioration of ecosystem services seriously threatens the survival and health of humans (MEA 2005)
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