Investigating seasonal patterns in enteric infections: a systematic review of time series methods.

Abstract

Foodborne and waterborne gastrointestinal infections and their associated outbreaks are preventable, yet still result in significant morbidity, mortality and revenue loss. Many enteric infections demonstrate seasonality, or annual systematic periodic fluctuations in incidence, associated with climatic and environmental factors. Public health professionals use statistical methods and time series models to describe, compare, explain and predict seasonal patterns. However, descriptions and estimates of seasonal features, such as peak timing, depend on how researchers define seasonality for research purposes and how they apply time series methods. In this review, we outline the advantages and limitations of common methods for estimating seasonal peak timing. We provide recommendations improving reporting requirements for disease surveillance systems. Greater attention to how seasonality is defined, modelled, interpreted and reported is necessary to promote reproducible research and strengthen proactive and targeted public health policies, intervention strategies and preparedness plans to dampen the intensity and impacts of seasonal illnesses.