Investigating global warming's influence on food security in Benin: in-depth analysis of potential implications of climate variability on maize production

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a pressing concern affecting nations worldwide, particularly within the African continent, including Benin. Given that maize stands as a staple cereal in Benin, this research to assess the impact and predict the effects of climate change on maize production by the year 2050. To attain this objective, an assortment of data encompassing climatic conditions, demographic factors, fertilizer application levels, and emissions of environmental pollutants has been collected and analyzed. The data analysis based on ARDL and ARIMA models has unveiled those variables such as emissions of CO2 and CH4 through food waste, peak temperatures, precipitation patterns, and rural population density exert considerable immediate influence over maize production volumes. The predictive models portend an upswing in national maize production volume, albeit accompanied by a probable decline in per capita availability. Policies aimed at controlling activities that generate high levels of air pollutants should be formulated to increase production capacities.