Investigating Forest Cover Change Using Historical GIS Technologies: A Case Study with an Example of Jurbarkas District of the Republic of Lithuania

Abstract

Effective forest management systems based on comprehensive tools need to be developed for the analysis and assessment of forest cover change. This requires a wide range of data, starting from old maps, which allow the reconstruction of spatially referenced information on past forest areas, to recently collected data. The research methodology proposed in this paper involves a combined analysis of data from different sources, using statistical, comparative, and visual analysis methods. The case study is Jurbarkas District of the Republic of Lithuania characterized by a high land productivity score. The research found that the highest forest cover areas were in the 19th century and the lowest in the 20th century. It can be seen that during the period under research, forest areas ‘migrated’ from an area favorable for agricultural activities to a less favorable area with higher slopes. Permanent forest cover areas and the age of the dominant trees have been identified. The age of the trees in the forest areas has allowed for the identification of the periods when the most intensive logging took place. The rate of forest cover change made it possible to predict the total disappearance of the forest areas provided that the factors influencing forest cover change at that time remained unchanged. If the trends in forest change in Jurbarkas District had been maintained in the period between the 19th and 20th centuries, the forest would have disappeared in 2006.