Abstract
False start of the growing season (Fsos) is a component of the onset variability related to agronomic drought that adversely impact on agricultural production and productivity. In the sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where agriculture heavily depends on rainfall, the Fsos tends to create confusion among farmers on when to start planting crops thereby affecting seed germination and normal growth after emergence. In this paper, we focus on the Fsos and the occurrence of dry spell especially before the Start of growing Season (SoS). We take advantage of the existing rainfall estimates (CHIRPS) and remotely sensed data for vegetation performance (NDVI) over the period 1999–2017 in combination with local knowledge derived from farmers to map out areas at risk of (i) dry spell at the SoS, and (ii) false timing of SoS or high probability of occurrence of the Fsos. We found that the North Eastern part of Uganda (8.8% of arable area) were at risk of dry spell throughout each year. However, the greater North (58.1% of arable area) was prone to dry spell during the onset of the March–May season. Areas in the South Western (3.7%) region were at risk during the onset of the September–November season. The probability that a location in Uganda experiences an Fsos falls between 0-53%. The findings in this study are vital for planning of predictive adaptation to the impacts of climate variability on agriculture amid struggle aimed at tackling food insecurity challenge in the SSA.
Highlights
Food production especially in the sub-Saharan region heavily relies on rainfed agriculture; and this will even continue under future climatic conditions (FAO, 2011)
The analysis, derived 19-year spatial temporal dynamics of the land cover for Uganda obtained by extracting the temporal profile per class, generated from cluster signature data saved in ERDAS
This study analysed the component of agronomic drought occurring during the onset of growing season in Uganda by characterizing areas that are prone to dry spell, providing insights on dry spell occurrence during the onset of the season with possibility of it being related to false start
Summary
Food production especially in the sub-Saharan region heavily relies on rainfed agriculture; and this will even continue under future climatic conditions (FAO, 2011). Limitation (or absence) of rainfall leads to dry spell (rainfall breaks) thereby affecting the vegetation growing period since the rainfall distribution can be irregular and difficult to predict Such an erratic (or unpredictable) rainfall can cause heavy economic losses to smallholder farmers, resulting in food insecurity and poor livelihood (Bates et al, 2008; Winkler et al, 2017). The climatic conditions of Uganda have been characterized by extreme weather phenomena, those related to precipitation (Kaggwa et al, 2009) These phenomena which tend to be manifested in terms of increasing frequency and duration of droughts, storms, and floods directly affect agricultural productivity by reducing yields and less food to meet the needs of the increasing population. The correct determination of the start of the growing season is important to ensure that there is an adequate soil moisture to support seed emergence after planting and crop growth (Ati et al, 2002; Orlove et al, 2010)
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