Investigating Extreme Wave-Induced Runup in Villanova, Spain: A Comparative Analysis of Extreme Value Models

Abstract

Coastal cities are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme wave-induced runup (ssh-runup), which can cause significant damage to infrastructure, ecosystems, and human life. A comprehensive understanding of the characteristics and future trends of extreme ssh-runup is crucial for effective coastal risk management and adaptation strategies. This study employs extreme value analysis (EVA) to investigate wave-induced runup (ssh-runup) in Villanova, Spain, a coastal community participating in the SCORE project's Coastal City Living Labs initiative. Historical (1956-2005), evaluation run (1980-2018), and future (2015-2094) ssh-runup data are analyzed under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Four statistical models are applied for EVA: Block Maxima Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) with L-moments using Gumbel and Peak Over Threshold (POT) Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) with a 98% threshold and a constant threshold (0.82). Model performance is evaluated using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), as well as different plots (e.g., QQ plot). Results indicate that the GPD model performs consistently better than the other methods in all datasets. The GPD model exhibits a slight improvement over GEV and other models in the historical and evaluation runs, while it outperforms GEV and other models significantly in future projections. This suggests that the GPD model is better suited for capturing the increasing trend in extreme ssh-runup under climate change scenarios. The findings of this study provide valuable insights into the characteristics and future trends of wave-induced runup in Villanova, aiding in coastal risk assessment and adaptation planning. Applying different EVA techniques highlights the importance of selecting the most appropriate model for the specific data and context. These findings contribute to the understanding of coastal hazards and inform the development of effective adaptation strategies to mitigate the risks associated with extreme wave-induced runup.